Every player line from FanDuel and DraftKings next to the Reko projection, with recent hit rates and the matchup. Thursday 12 November, 14 games.
Props tracked
535
2 books, 14 games
Rated 4 or 5
2
Positive expected value
Top edge
+8.4%
Melton assists
PropBest priceHit rate
De'Anthony MeltonGSW SG, @ HOU 02:30OVER2.5Assists8/5FanDuel2.8+0.3 vs line5+8.4%5/10L5 2/5L20 12/201stHOU vs G
Gui SantosGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER13.5PRA24/25FanDuel18.3+4.8 vs line3+4.3%6/10L5 2/5L20 15/2018thHOU vs F
De'Anthony MeltonGSW SG, @ HOU 02:30OVER14.5PRA49/50FanDuel18.7+4.2 vs line3+4.1%4/10L5 2/5L20 8/201stHOU vs G
Brandin PodziemskiGSW G, @ HOU 02:30OVER23.5PRA49/50FanDuel27.0+3.5 vs line3+2.2%6/10L5 3/5L20 13/201stHOU vs G
Draymond GreenGSW PF, @ HOU 02:30OVER16.5PRA49/50FanDuel19.5+3.0 vs line2+0.7%3/10L5 2/5L20 10/2018thHOU vs F
Gui SantosGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER1.5Assists8/13FanDuel2.9+1.4 vs line2+0.5%5/10L5 1/5L20 13/2023rdHOU vs F
Amen ThompsonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30UNDER15.5Points22/25FanDuel14.2−1.3 vs line2+0.4%6/10L5 4/5L20 7/2010thGSW vs F
Tari EasonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30OVER8.5PointsEVSFanDuel9.0+0.5 vs line2−0.2%7/10L5 3/5L20 14/2010thGSW vs F
Kevin DurantHOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER31.5PRA47/50FanDuel30.7−0.8 vs line2−0.6%5/10L5 3/5L20 7/209thGSW vs F
De'Anthony MeltonGSW SG, @ HOU 02:30OVER8.5Points5/6FanDuel11.9+3.4 vs line2−0.6%5/10L5 2/5L20 8/201stHOU vs G
Alperen SengunHOU C, vs GSW 02:30UNDER6.5Assists49/50FanDuel5.9−0.6 vs line2−0.7%3/10L5 1/5L20 10/206thGSW vs C
Kevin DurantHOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER21.5PointsEVSFanDuel20.9−0.6 vs line2−0.7%6/10L5 4/5L20 8/2010thGSW vs F
Gui SantosGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER7.5Points47/50FanDuel10.6+3.1 vs line2−1.1%4/10L5 1/5L20 11/2015thHOU vs F
Draymond GreenGSW PF, @ HOU 02:30OVER4.5Points47/50FanDuel6.8+2.3 vs line2−1.4%2/10L5 0/5L20 10/2015thHOU vs F
Tari EasonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30OVER4.5Rebounds77/100FanDuel5.7+1.2 vs line1−1.5%7/10L5 3/5L20 14/2012thGSW vs F
Brandin PodziemskiGSW G, @ HOU 02:30OVER15.5Points49/50FanDuel17.2+1.7 vs line1−1.5%7/10L5 3/5L20 15/201stHOU vs G
Brandin PodziemskiGSW G, @ HOU 02:30OVER3.5Assists5/4DraftKings4.2+0.7 vs line1−1.7%5/10L5 2/5L20 8/201stHOU vs G
Stephen CurryGSW PG, @ HOU 02:30OVER4.5Assists49/50FanDuel4.9+0.4 vs line1−1.8%4/10L5 3/5L20 6/201stHOU vs G
Al HorfordGSW C, @ HOU 02:30OVER10.5PRA19/20DraftKings14.8+4.3 vs line1−1.8%7/10L5 4/5L20 16/2010thHOU vs C
Yaxel LendeborgGSW F, @ HOU 02:30UNDER6.5Rebounds22/25FanDuel6.5+0.0 vs line1−1.9%3/10L5 2/5L20 4/1117thHOU vs F
Yaxel LendeborgGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER1.5Threes17/25FanDuel2.2+0.7 vs line1−2.0%6/10L5 4/5L20 6/116thHOU vs F
Al HorfordGSW C, @ HOU 02:30OVER3.5Rebounds11/10DraftKings4.8+1.3 vs line1−2.1%7/10L5 3/5L20 14/2015thHOU vs C
Georges NiangGSW SF, @ HOU 02:30OVER7.5Points93/100DraftKings10.3+2.8 vs line1−2.2%6/10L5 4/5L20 12/2015thHOU vs F
Alperen SengunHOU C, vs GSW 02:30UNDER19.5Points89/100FanDuel18.9−0.6 vs line1−2.3%5/10L5 3/5L20 11/2012thGSW vs C
Draymond GreenGSW PF, @ HOU 02:30OVER6.5Assists21/20FanDuel7.2+0.7 vs line1−2.3%5/10L5 3/5L20 11/2023rdHOU vs F
Stephen CurryGSW PG, @ HOU 02:30UNDER4.5Threes71/100FanDuel4.5+0.0 vs line1−2.6%5/10L5 1/5L20 12/205thHOU vs G
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER14.5Points22/25FanDuel14.2−0.3 vs line1−2.8%6/10L5 3/5L20 7/2010thGSW vs F
De'Anthony MeltonGSW SG, @ HOU 02:30OVER3.5Rebounds6/5FanDuel4.0+0.5 vs line1−2.9%8/10L5 4/5L20 13/202ndHOU vs G
Georges NiangGSW SF, @ HOU 02:30OVER11.5PRA93/100DraftKings15.0+3.5 vs line1−3.0%6/10L5 4/5L20 11/2018thHOU vs F
Al HorfordGSW C, @ HOU 02:30OVER4.5Points4/5DraftKings7.5+3.0 vs line1−3.1%5/10L5 3/5L20 13/208thHOU vs C
Marcus SmartHOU PG, vs GSW 02:30OVER1.5Assists13/20DraftKings2.7+1.2 vs line1−3.2%7/10L5 3/5L20 16/2023rdGSW vs G
Kevin DurantHOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER5.5Rebounds11/10DraftKings5.3−0.2 vs line1−3.4%6/10L5 3/5L20 10/2012thGSW vs F
Amen ThompsonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30UNDER7.5Rebounds3/4DraftKings6.3−1.2 vs line1−3.6%5/10L5 2/5L20 10/2012thGSW vs F
Amen ThompsonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30OVER3.5Assists6/5FanDuel3.8+0.3 vs line1−3.8%3/10L5 0/5L20 12/2013thGSW vs F
Brandin PodziemskiGSW G, @ HOU 02:30OVER4.5Rebounds4/5FanDuel5.4+0.9 vs line1−3.8%7/10L5 3/5L20 11/202ndHOU vs G
Yaxel LendeborgGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER18.5Points49/50DraftKings19.7+1.2 vs line1−3.9%6/10L5 3/5L20 6/1115thHOU vs F
Georges NiangGSW SF, @ HOU 02:30OVER2.5ReboundsEVSDraftKings3.2+0.7 vs line1−4.0%6/10L5 2/5L20 10/2017thHOU vs F
Tari EasonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30UNDER1.5Assists71/100DraftKings1.4−0.1 vs line1−4.0%4/10L5 1/5L20 8/2013thGSW vs F
Georges NiangGSW SF, @ HOU 02:30OVER1.5Threes11/10DraftKings1.9+0.4 vs line1−4.2%4/10L5 2/5L20 10/206thHOU vs F
Alperen SengunHOU C, vs GSW 02:30UNDER9.5Rebounds37/50FanDuel8.6−0.9 vs line1−4.3%5/10L5 3/5L20 11/202ndGSW vs C
Alperen SengunHOU C, vs GSW 02:30UNDER35.5PRA10/11FanDuel33.9−1.6 vs line1−4.6%4/10L5 2/5L20 10/208thGSW vs C
Yaxel LendeborgGSW F, @ HOU 02:30UNDER4.5Assists3/4DraftKings4.0−0.5 vs line1−4.6%4/10L5 2/5L20 5/1123rdHOU vs F
Gui SantosGSW F, @ HOU 02:30OVER3.5Rebounds3/4DraftKings4.8+1.3 vs line1−4.6%7/10L5 2/5L20 14/2017thHOU vs F
Amen ThompsonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30UNDER26.5PRA21/25DraftKings24.6−1.9 vs line1−4.7%7/10L5 5/5L20 8/209thGSW vs F
Stephen CurryGSW PG, @ HOU 02:30OVER25.5Points87/100DraftKings27.0+1.5 vs line1−4.9%5/10L5 4/5L20 10/201stHOU vs G
De'Anthony MeltonGSW SG, @ HOU 02:30OVER1.5Threes23/25DraftKings2.0+0.5 vs line1−5.2%6/10L5 2/5L20 10/205thHOU vs G
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER6.5Rebounds22/25DraftKings6.4−0.1 vs line1−5.2%5/10L5 1/5L20 11/2012thGSW vs F
Marcus SmartHOU PG, vs GSW 02:30OVER6.5Points99/100DraftKings7.4+0.9 vs line1−5.2%5/10L5 2/5L20 13/2021stGSW vs G
Brandin PodziemskiGSW G, @ HOU 02:30UNDER2.5Threes14/25FanDuel2.5+0.0 vs line1−5.3%4/10L5 2/5L20 10/205thHOU vs G
Kevin DurantHOU PF, vs GSW 02:30OVER3.5Assists97/100DraftKings4.2+0.7 vs line1−5.3%4/10L5 2/5L20 12/2013thGSW vs F
Marcus SmartHOU PG, vs GSW 02:30OVER10.5PRA5/6DraftKings12.4+1.9 vs line1−5.4%5/10L5 2/5L20 15/2021stGSW vs G
Georges NiangGSW SF, @ HOU 02:30OVER1.5Assists11/8FanDuel1.7+0.2 vs line1−5.4%6/10L5 4/5L20 9/2023rdHOU vs F
Fred VanVleetHOU SG, vs GSW 02:30UNDER3.5Rebounds29/50DraftKings3.0−0.5 vs line1−5.4%6/10L5 4/5L20 12/2012thGSW vs G
Tari EasonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30OVER14.5PRA5/6FanDuel16.2+1.7 vs line1−5.5%8/10L5 3/5L20 15/209thGSW vs F
Fred VanVleetHOU SG, vs GSW 02:30OVER11.5Points22/25DraftKings12.4+0.9 vs line1−5.6%7/10L5 4/5L20 13/2021stGSW vs G
Stephen CurryGSW PG, @ HOU 02:30OVER34.5PRA22/25DraftKings35.3+0.8 vs line1−5.6%4/10L5 3/5L20 8/201stHOU vs G
Marcus SmartHOU PG, vs GSW 02:30OVER0.5Threes21/50DraftKings1.3+0.8 vs line1−6.0%7/10L5 5/5L20 15/2023rdGSW vs G
Fred VanVleetHOU SG, vs GSW 02:30UNDER20.5PRA21/25DraftKings20.4−0.1 vs line1−6.1%4/10L5 2/5L20 10/2021stGSW vs G
Tari EasonHOU F, vs GSW 02:30UNDER1.5Threes11/25FanDuel1.1−0.4 vs line1−6.1%7/10L5 2/5L20 11/2013thGSW vs F
Fred VanVleetHOU SG, vs GSW 02:30OVER4.5Assists13/20FanDuel4.9+0.4 vs line1−6.2%6/10L5 2/5L20 11/2023rdGSW vs G
Kevin DurantHOU PF, vs GSW 02:30OVER1.5Threes17/20DraftKings1.8+0.3 vs line1−6.6%4/10L5 1/5L20 11/2013thGSW vs F
Yaxel LendeborgGSW F, @ HOU 02:30UNDER30.5PRA43/50DraftKings30.3−0.2 vs line1−6.7%2/10L5 1/5L20 3/1118thHOU vs F
Al HorfordGSW C, @ HOU 02:30UNDER1.5Threes4/9DraftKings1.4−0.1 vs line1−7.0%7/10L5 3/5L20 10/203rdHOU vs C
Fred VanVleetHOU SG, vs GSW 02:30OVER2.5Threes99/100DraftKings2.6+0.1 vs line1−7.0%7/10L5 4/5L20 13/2023rdGSW vs G
Draymond GreenGSW PF, @ HOU 02:30UNDER5.5Rebounds17/25DraftKings5.5+0.0 vs line1−7.1%8/10L5 4/5L20 14/2017thHOU vs F
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU PF, vs GSW 02:30OVER1.5Assists79/100DraftKings1.9+0.4 vs line1−7.1%8/10L5 4/5L20 12/2013thGSW vs F
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU PF, vs GSW 02:30UNDER2.5Threes14/25DraftKings2.3−0.2 vs line1−7.2%6/10L5 3/5L20 10/2013thGSW vs F
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU PF, vs GSW 02:30OVER22.5PRA4/5DraftKings22.7+0.2 vs line1−7.2%6/10L5 4/5L20 16/209thGSW vs F
Alperen SengunHOU C, vs GSW 02:30OVER0.5Threes21/20DraftKings0.6+0.1 vs line1−7.8%7/10L5 3/5L20 9/208thGSW vs C
Stephen CurryGSW PG, @ HOU 02:30OVER3.5Rebounds16/25DraftKings3.6+0.1 vs line1−8.5%6/10L5 4/5L20 9/202ndHOU vs G
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0more rated 4 or 541hit 8+ of their last 1014games, every player
Free, no card.
Rating 1–5 compares the best price with Reko's chance. Matchup is the opponent's rank for allowing this stat to the player's position, from 1st (allows the least) to 30th (allows the most). A high rank suits overs, a low one unders.
Questions
How these numbers are made, and how to read them.
How are the prop ratings worked out?+
Each prop is rated 1 to 5 by its expected value: Reko’s chance of the line landing, times the best price at FanDuel or DraftKings, minus one. Reko’s chance combines the model’s projection with the books’ own price (with the margin taken out), weighted by how well each has predicted past props. A 5 means an expected value of 7.5% or more; a 1 means the price is worse than fair.
What is a hit rate?+
How often the line would have landed in the player’s recent games: his last 5, 10 and 20 games. Open a prop to see the games behind it, or go to the player’s page to move the line and see the hit rate at any number.
Which line is shown for each player?+
The main line: the one the books price closest to even money. The other lines on offer are on the player’s page.
What does the matchup rank mean?+
Where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position, from 1st (allows the least) to 30th (allows the most). The same defense shows the same rank on every prop. A high rank (a soft defense) suits overs, a low one (a tough defense) suits unders.
When do props appear?+
Books post player props in the day or two before each game. They appear here as soon as they are priced and update through the day.
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