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Thu 00:00ProjWizards112.8Pacers115.3SpreadIND −2.5Total228.1WinIND 58%Thu 00:00ProjCavaliers109.8Knicks113.1SpreadNYK −3.3Total222.8WinNYK 60%Thu 00:00ProjCeltics113.7Raptors108.9SpreadBOS −4.8Total222.6WinBOS 65%Thu 01:00ProjSpurs121.8Bulls110.6SpreadSAS −11.2Total232.4WinSAS 81%Thu 01:00ProjNuggets116.9Grizzlies114.5SpreadDEN −2.4Total231.4WinDEN 57%Thu 01:00ProjLakers120.6Bucks108.3SpreadLAL −12.4Total228.9WinLAL 84%
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Hit rates tonight
Derik QueenOver 10.5 Points + assists, hit 9/10
Trey Murphy IIIOver 2.5 Assists, hit 9/10
Moritz WagnerOver 0.5 Threes made, hit 9/10
Hit rates count how often tonight's line would have landed in each player's recent games.How to use the cheat sheet →
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Props
NBANFLMLB
NBA props

DEN @ MEM only. All games

523more props tonight

You’re seeing the top 12 of 535. A free account opens the whole sheet and every filter.

0more rated 4 or 541hit 8+ of their last 10
Free, no card.
NBA propsPlayer props
NFLMLBNBA

Prop cheat sheet

Every player line from FanDuel and DraftKings next to the Reko projection, with recent hit rates and the matchup. Thursday 12 November, 14 games.

Props tracked
535
2 books, 14 games
Rated 4 or 5
2
Positive expected value
Top edge
+8.4%
Melton assists
Prop Best price Hit rate
523more props tonight

You’re seeing the top 12 of 535. A free account opens the whole sheet and every filter.

0more rated 4 or 541hit 8+ of their last 1014games, every player
Free, no card.

Rating 1–5 compares the best price with Reko's chance. Matchup is the opponent's rank for allowing this stat to the player's position, from 1st (allows the least) to 30th (allows the most). A high rank suits overs, a low one unders.

Questions

How these numbers are made, and how to read them.

How are the prop ratings worked out?

Each prop is rated 1 to 5 by its expected value: Reko’s chance of the line landing, times the best price at FanDuel or DraftKings, minus one. Reko’s chance combines the model’s projection with the books’ own price (with the margin taken out), weighted by how well each has predicted past props. A 5 means an expected value of 7.5% or more; a 1 means the price is worse than fair.

What is a hit rate?

How often the line would have landed in the player’s recent games: his last 5, 10 and 20 games. Open a prop to see the games behind it, or go to the player’s page to move the line and see the hit rate at any number.

Which line is shown for each player?

The main line: the one the books price closest to even money. The other lines on offer are on the player’s page.

What does the matchup rank mean?

Where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position, from 1st (allows the least) to 30th (allows the most). The same defense shows the same rank on every prop. A high rank (a soft defense) suits overs, a low one (a tough defense) suits unders.

When do props appear?

Books post player props in the day or two before each game. They appear here as soon as they are priced and update through the day.