Every player line from FanDuel and DraftKings next to the Reko projection, with recent hit rates and the matchup. Friday 13 November, 14 games.
Props tracked
268
2 books, 14 games
Rated 4 or 5
0
Positive expected value
Top edge
+2.5%
Pitts receptions
PropBest priceHit rate
Kyle PittsATL TE, vs KC 18:00UNDER3.5Receptions21/20FanDuel3.5+0.0 vs line3+2.5%6/10L5 2/5L20 10/2026thKC vs TE
Patrick MahomesKC QB, @ ATL 18:00OVER1.5Pass TDs22/25FanDuel1.6+0.1 vs line1−3.5%6/10L5 3/5L20 11/2021stATL vs QB
Michael Penix Jr.ATL QB, vs KC 18:00OVER6.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel12.2+5.7 vs line1−3.7%5/10L5 3/5L20 7/2010thKC vs QB
Emmett JohnsonKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER9.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel16.5+7.0 vs line1−3.9%5/8L5 2/5L20 5/821stATL vs RB
Rashee RiceKC WR, @ ATL 18:00UNDER5.5Receptions71/100FanDuel4.3−1.2 vs line1−4.6%5/10L5 3/5L20 8/2026thATL vs WR
Bijan RobinsonATL RB, vs KC 18:00UNDER28.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel27.0−1.5 vs line1−4.9%6/10L5 2/5L20 9/2019thKC vs RB
Noah GrayKC TE, @ ATL 18:00OVER1.5Receptions21/20FanDuel1.6+0.1 vs line1−5.3%6/10L5 4/5L20 10/2020thATL vs TE
Patrick MahomesKC QB, @ ATL 18:00OVER240.5Pass yds89/100DraftKings241.6+1.1 vs line1−5.5%5/10L5 3/5L20 14/2025thATL vs QB
Noah GrayKC TE, @ ATL 18:00OVER11.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings17.5+6.0 vs line1−5.5%6/10L5 4/5L20 11/2019thATL vs TE
Olamide ZaccheausATL WR, vs KC 18:00OVER8.5Rec yds93/100DraftKings14.3+5.8 vs line1−5.5%2/10L5 0/5L20 6/205thKC vs WR
Jahan DotsonATL WR, vs KC 18:00OVER28.5Rec yds89/100DraftKings29.9+1.4 vs line1−5.5%4/10L5 3/5L20 7/205thKC vs WR
Khalil HerbertATL RB, vs KC 18:00OVER9.5Rush yds22/25DraftKings12.1+2.6 vs line1−5.5%4/10L5 2/5L20 5/206thKC vs RB
Emmett JohnsonKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER12.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings15.8+3.3 vs line1−5.5%5/8L5 3/5L20 5/87thATL vs RB
Michael Penix Jr.ATL QB, vs KC 18:00UNDER1.5Pass TDs4/7DraftKings1.4−0.1 vs line1−5.7%7/10L5 3/5L20 15/203rdKC vs QB
Drake LondonATL WR, vs KC 18:00UNDER5.5Receptions24/25DraftKings4.7−0.8 vs line1−5.7%7/10L5 3/5L20 12/209thKC vs WR
Olamide ZaccheausATL WR, vs KC 18:00UNDER1.5Receptions29/50DraftKings1.2−0.3 vs line1−5.7%9/10L5 5/5L20 14/209thKC vs WR
Emmett JohnsonKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER1.5Receptions63/100DraftKings1.7+0.2 vs line1−5.8%5/8L5 3/5L20 5/812thATL vs RB
Jahan DotsonATL WR, vs KC 18:00OVER1.5Receptions8/15DraftKings2.0+0.5 vs line1−5.8%6/10L5 4/5L20 9/209thKC vs WR
Travis KelceKC TE, @ ATL 18:00UNDER4.5Receptions3/4DraftKings4.2−0.3 vs line1−5.9%7/10L5 4/5L20 12/2020thATL vs TE
Bijan RobinsonATL RB, vs KC 18:00UNDER3.5Receptions11/10DraftKings3.4−0.1 vs line1−5.9%6/10L5 2/5L20 10/2012thKC vs RB
Drake LondonATL WR, vs KC 18:00UNDER72.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel64.6−7.9 vs line1−6.1%6/10L5 4/5L20 11/205thKC vs WR
Rashee RiceKC WR, @ ATL 18:00UNDER56.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel52.2−4.3 vs line1−6.1%6/10L5 3/5L20 11/2024thATL vs WR
Kyle PittsATL TE, vs KC 18:00UNDER37.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel33.5−4.0 vs line1−6.1%6/10L5 3/5L20 9/2021stKC vs TE
Bijan RobinsonATL RB, vs KC 18:00OVER84.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel106.8+22.3 vs line1−6.1%4/10L5 2/5L20 9/206thKC vs RB
Kenneth Walker IIIKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER86.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel107.4+20.9 vs line1−6.1%6/10L5 3/5L20 9/2021stATL vs RB
Kenneth Walker IIIKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER20.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel23.7+3.2 vs line1−6.2%5/10L5 2/5L20 10/207thATL vs RB
Michael Penix Jr.ATL QB, vs KC 18:00UNDER223.5Pass yds22/25FanDuel209.9−13.6 vs line1−6.2%7/10L5 3/5L20 12/206thKC vs QB
Travis KelceKC TE, @ ATL 18:00OVER49.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel50.7+1.2 vs line1−6.2%6/10L5 3/5L20 12/2019thATL vs TE
Patrick MahomesKC QB, @ ATL 18:00OVER8.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel10.3+1.8 vs line1−6.2%6/10L5 2/5L20 12/202ndATL vs QB
Kenneth Walker IIIKC RB, @ ATL 18:00OVER2.5Receptions63/100FanDuel3.2+0.7 vs line1−6.7%6/10L5 3/5L20 12/2012thATL vs RB
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0more rated 4 or 525hit 8+ of their last 1014games, every player
Free, no card.
Rating 1–5 compares the best price with Reko's chance. Matchup is the opponent's rank for allowing this stat to the player's position, from 1st (allows the least) to 32nd (allows the most). A high rank suits overs, a low one unders.
Questions
How these numbers are made, and how to read them.
How are the prop ratings worked out?+
Each prop is rated 1 to 5 by its expected value: Reko’s chance of the line landing, times the best price at FanDuel or DraftKings, minus one. Reko’s chance combines the model’s projection with the books’ own price (with the margin taken out), weighted by how well each has predicted past props. A 5 means an expected value of 7.5% or more; a 1 means the price is worse than fair.
What is a hit rate?+
How often the line would have landed in the player’s recent games: his last 5, 10 and 20 games. Open a prop to see the games behind it, or go to the player’s page to move the line and see the hit rate at any number.
Which line is shown for each player?+
The main line: the one the books price closest to even money. The other lines on offer are on the player’s page.
What does the matchup rank mean?+
Where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position, from 1st (allows the least) to 32nd (allows the most). The same defense shows the same rank on every prop. A high rank (a soft defense) suits overs, a low one (a tough defense) suits unders.
When do props appear?+
Books post player props in the day or two before each game, and through the week for the NFL. They appear here as soon as they are priced and update through the day.
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