Prop cheat sheet

Each prop is rated 1 to 5 by its expected value: Reko’s chance of the line landing, times the best price at FanDuel or DraftKings, minus one. Reko’s chance combines the model’s projection with the books’ own price (with the margin taken out), weighted by how well each has predicted past props. A 5 means an expected value of 7.5% or more; a 1 means the price is worse than fair.

How often the line would have landed in the player’s recent games: his last 5, 10 and 20 games. Open a prop to see the games behind it, or go to the player’s page to move the line and see the hit rate at any number.

The main line: the one the books price closest to even money. The other lines on offer are on the player’s page.

Where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position, from 1st (allows the least) to 32nd (allows the most). The same defense shows the same rank on every prop. A high rank (a soft defense) suits overs, a low one (a tough defense) suits unders.

Books post player props in the day or two before each game, and through the week for the NFL. They appear here as soon as they are priced and update through the day.