Every player line from FanDuel and DraftKings next to the Reko projection, with recent hit rates and the matchup. Friday 13 November, 14 games.
Props tracked
268
2 books, 14 games
Rated 4 or 5
0
Positive expected value
Top edge
+2.5%
Pitts receptions
PropBest priceHit rate
Aaron RodgersPIT QB, @ CIN 01:20OVER1.5Pass TDs47/50FanDuel1.6+0.1 vs line1−2.3%4/10L5 3/5L20 7/203rdCIN vs QB
Darnell WashingtonPIT TE, @ CIN 01:20OVER2.5Receptions49/50FanDuel2.8+0.3 vs line1−3.3%5/10L5 3/5L20 10/2031stCIN vs TE
Tee HigginsCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20OVER5.5Receptions5/6FanDuel5.6+0.1 vs line1−4.8%5/10L5 3/5L20 8/2015thPIT vs WR
Jaylen WarrenPIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER2.5Receptions29/50FanDuel3.2+0.7 vs line1−5.0%6/10L5 3/5L20 8/2012thCIN vs RB
Jaylen WarrenPIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER61.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel87.7+26.2 vs line1−5.3%6/10L5 4/5L20 12/2015thCIN vs RB
Aaron RodgersPIT QB, @ CIN 01:20OVER0.5Rush yds19/20DraftKings6.7+6.2 vs line1−5.3%5/10L5 2/5L20 9/2031stCIN vs QB
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20UNDER92.5Rec yds89/100DraftKings89.4−3.1 vs line1−5.4%6/10L5 3/5L20 9/2016thPIT vs WR
Chase BrownCIN RB, vs PIT 01:20OVER43.5Rush yds89/100DraftKings55.9+12.4 vs line1−5.4%7/10L5 2/5L20 14/2015thPIT vs RB
Rico DowdlePIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER30.5Rush yds22/25DraftKings38.5+8.0 vs line1−5.5%5/10L5 3/5L20 15/2015thCIN vs RB
Rico DowdlePIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER14.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings20.4+5.9 vs line1−5.5%3/10L5 2/5L20 9/2021stCIN vs RB
Darnell WashingtonPIT TE, @ CIN 01:20OVER27.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings33.1+5.6 vs line1−5.5%3/10L5 1/5L20 7/2032ndCIN vs TE
Aaron RodgersPIT QB, @ CIN 01:20OVER240.5Pass yds89/100DraftKings243.6+3.1 vs line1−5.5%4/10L5 2/5L20 7/2021stCIN vs QB
DK MetcalfPIT WR, @ CIN 01:20OVER52.5Rec yds89/100DraftKings58.6+6.1 vs line1−5.5%3/10L5 3/5L20 7/202ndCIN vs WR
Mike GesickiCIN TE, vs PIT 01:20OVER23.5Rec yds89/100DraftKings28.2+4.7 vs line1−5.5%5/10L5 2/5L20 8/2023rdPIT vs TE
Jaylen WarrenPIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER25.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings29.1+3.6 vs line1−5.5%8/10L5 4/5L20 9/2021stCIN vs RB
Tee HigginsCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20OVER76.5Rec yds22/25DraftKings81.3+4.8 vs line1−5.5%5/10L5 3/5L20 8/2016thPIT vs WR
Germie BernardPIT WR, @ CIN 01:20OVER47.5Rec yds89/100DraftKings48.1+0.6 vs line1−5.5%2/8L5 2/5L20 2/82ndCIN vs WR
Rico DowdlePIT RB, @ CIN 01:20OVER2.5Receptions5/4DraftKings2.7+0.2 vs line1−5.6%4/10L5 2/5L20 9/2012thCIN vs RB
Chase BrownCIN RB, vs PIT 01:20OVER4.5Receptions11/10DraftKings4.9+0.4 vs line1−5.6%3/10L5 2/5L20 7/2027thPIT vs RB
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20UNDER8.5Receptions3/4DraftKings6.8−1.7 vs line1−5.7%7/10L5 3/5L20 12/2015thPIT vs WR
Joe BurrowCIN QB, vs PIT 01:20OVER6.5Rush yds10/11DraftKings10.4+3.9 vs line1−5.8%7/10L5 4/5L20 10/2013thPIT vs QB
Mike GesickiCIN TE, vs PIT 01:20UNDER2.5Receptions4/5DraftKings2.5+0.0 vs line1−5.9%6/10L5 3/5L20 12/2020thPIT vs TE
Joe BurrowCIN QB, vs PIT 01:20UNDER2.5Pass TDs1/2DraftKings2.2−0.3 vs line1−6.0%4/10L5 1/5L20 9/208thPIT vs QB
DK MetcalfPIT WR, @ CIN 01:20UNDER4.5Receptions71/100DraftKings4.5+0.0 vs line1−6.0%8/10L5 3/5L20 14/201stCIN vs WR
Dohnte MeyersCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20UNDER2.5Receptions3/4DraftKings2.1−0.4 vs line1−6.0%5/8L5 3/5L20 5/815thPIT vs WR
Germie BernardPIT WR, @ CIN 01:20UNDER4.5Receptions69/100DraftKings4.2−0.3 vs line1−6.0%5/8L5 2/5L20 5/81stCIN vs WR
Chase BrownCIN RB, vs PIT 01:20OVER23.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel33.6+10.1 vs line1−6.1%3/10L5 2/5L20 9/2031stPIT vs RB
Joe BurrowCIN QB, vs PIT 01:20UNDER289.5Pass yds22/25FanDuel275.3−14.2 vs line1−6.1%6/10L5 2/5L20 14/2023rdPIT vs QB
Dohnte MeyersCIN WR, vs PIT 01:20OVER19.5Rec yds22/25FanDuel27.0+7.5 vs line1−6.1%4/8L5 3/5L20 4/816thPIT vs WR
Samaje PerineCIN RB, vs PIT 01:20OVER22.5Rush yds22/25FanDuel27.0+4.5 vs line1−6.2%3/10L5 2/5L20 10/2015thPIT vs RB
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0more rated 4 or 525hit 8+ of their last 1014games, every player
Free, no card.
Rating 1–5 compares the best price with Reko's chance. Matchup is the opponent's rank for allowing this stat to the player's position, from 1st (allows the least) to 32nd (allows the most). A high rank suits overs, a low one unders.
Questions
How these numbers are made, and how to read them.
How are the prop ratings worked out?+
Each prop is rated 1 to 5 by its expected value: Reko’s chance of the line landing, times the best price at FanDuel or DraftKings, minus one. Reko’s chance combines the model’s projection with the books’ own price (with the margin taken out), weighted by how well each has predicted past props. A 5 means an expected value of 7.5% or more; a 1 means the price is worse than fair.
What is a hit rate?+
How often the line would have landed in the player’s recent games: his last 5, 10 and 20 games. Open a prop to see the games behind it, or go to the player’s page to move the line and see the hit rate at any number.
Which line is shown for each player?+
The main line: the one the books price closest to even money. The other lines on offer are on the player’s page.
What does the matchup rank mean?+
Where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position, from 1st (allows the least) to 32nd (allows the most). The same defense shows the same rank on every prop. A high rank (a soft defense) suits overs, a low one (a tough defense) suits unders.
When do props appear?+
Books post player props in the day or two before each game, and through the week for the NFL. They appear here as soon as they are priced and update through the day.
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