What the sheet shows
Each row is one player and one market: points, rebounds, assists, passing yards, strikeouts and so on. It covers every prop FanDuel and DraftKings are pricing for the day’s games, or the week’s games for the NFL. For each row you get the line, the side Reko’s projection leans to, the best price for that side, the projection itself, a rating from 1 to 5, the player’s hit rate over his recent games and how kind the matchup is.
You can narrow it by market, by game, by side and by rating, sort by any column, and search for a player. Click or tap any row to open the games behind it.
The line and the side
Books usually offer several lines for the same player: over 19.5 points, over 24.5, over 29.5 and so on. The sheet shows the main line, the one the books price closest to even money, because that is where the market thinks the real middle is. The other lines on offer are on the player’s own page.
The side shown is the one the projection leans to: Over when Reko projects more than the line, Under when it projects fewer.
The Reko projection
The projection is Reko’s expected number for that player in that game. It starts from how much he is expected to play and his role, then how productive he is in that time, and adjusts for the opponent, the likely pace of the game and teammates who are missing. It is set before the game and does not change once it starts.
A projection is an average, not a promise. A player projected for 24.3 points will land well above or below that number in plenty of games, which is why the rating is built on the chance of clearing the line rather than the projection alone.
How the rating is worked out
The rating is the expected value of the best available price at Reko’s chance of the line landing. Reko’s chance combines the model’s own probability with the books’ price, with the margin taken out, weighted by how well each has predicted past props. Expected value is that chance times the decimal price, minus one: a 55% chance at 2.00 is worth +10%.
| Rating | Expected value at the best price | In plain terms |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 7.5% or more | The price looks clearly long against Reko’s chance |
| 4 | 4.5% to 7.5% | A good price |
| 3 | 1% to 4.5% | A small edge |
| 2 | −1.5% to 1% | About fair |
| 1 | Below −1.5% | The price is worse than fair |
Treat a big gap between the projection and the line with care. Sometimes the model has spotted something the books haven’t priced; sometimes the books know something the model doesn’t yet, like a change in a player’s role. Check the minutes and the injury report before you trust it.
Hit rates
The hit rate counts how many of the player’s last 5, 10 and 20 games would have cleared the line, on the side shown. Open a prop to see the games one by one against the line. On the player’s page you can move the line up and down with the − and + buttons and watch the hit rate change at every number.
Hit rates describe the past. They go stale when a player changes team or role, comes back from injury or is a rookie with only a handful of games, so read them alongside the projection rather than instead of it.
The matchup rank
For the NBA and NFL the matchup column shows where the opponent ranks this season for allowing that stat to the player’s position. The highest number, 30th in the NBA and 32nd in the NFL, is the softest matchup; 1st is the toughest. The full tables are on the defense vs position pages.
Putting it together
A sensible routine: filter to the market you know best, look at the 4s and 5s, open each one and check that the hit rate and the minutes tell the same story as the rating, look at the injury report for the game, and compare the price at both books. Then log the bets you place, so that over a few hundred bets you can see whether the ones you picked this way actually paid.